The MPI-ESM is a comprehensive Earth-System Model, and it consists of component models for the ocean, the atmosphere, and the land surface. MPI-ESM-MR model from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology was selected in this study, based on it proved to be a good Global Climate Model by comparison to others. However, examining the study area, it is highly unlikely for the Quiver tree to spread to Desert and Savanna regions. These ecological biomes itself are consisted of the vegetations living within a region, and therefore the biomes are subject to climate change impacts as well. Īs one can observe from Figure 3 the Quiver tree niche is limited by the biome regions, namely it exists only in Nama-Karoo and Succulent-Karoo regions. The Quiver tree can provide a good indication of long term climate changes in the arid regions. Therefore climate change is one of the major factors affecting the existence of Quiver trees and the Quiver tree would be affected by long term climatic changes. Previous observations show that Quiver trees are very sensitive to environmental changes, and do not respond well to extreme hot and dry conditions. Presently, the conservation of Quiver trees is not only threatened by agricultural expansion, overgrazing, and mining but also by climate changes and droughts. In this paper, we assess the current status of the Quiver tree within its existing environment, and also assess the projected future changes of the Quiver tree under different climatic scenarios.įigure 2. Foden’s detailed research of the demographic data of the Quiver trees demonstrates that negligible recruitment has occurred in some populations for 50 years, and the effects of non-climatic variables, such as seed availability, herbivory, competition, and fungal pathogens, are very small.
The Quiver tree is essential to the local ecosystem and environment, because it is a source of moisture for a wide variety of mammals, birds and insects. It is a base species within its distribution, and is adapted to survive very dry conditions and stores water in its trunk, branches and leaves. The Quiver tree can grow up to 9 meters tall, and it has a 200 year life span ( Figure 2). ĭue to the fact that the succulent plants has special water-storing tissue which makes part of the plant fleshy, therefore succulents are able to survive long periods of drought conditions. dichotoma has an average life span that is estimated between a hundred and two hundred and fifty years. The Quiver tree has succulent leaf and stem, and this succulent tree species lives in dry rocky areas and can grow quite rapidly under the right conditions. This tree belongs to the genus Aloe and family Asphodelaceae, formerly Liliaceae. Īloe dichotoma (common name Quiver tree) occurs in the arid regions of Namaqualand and Bushman land in South Africa, and in arid regions of southern Namibia ( Figure 1).
Even a few degrees increase in temperature and a few millimeters of decrease in rainfall could cause a decline in the biodiversity of plants and animals in the arid regions.
This makes conservation and management of our ecosystem more difficult as not only we face prolonged droughts in Africa we also have problems of land transformation and deforestation. As the recent debates on climate change continues over the Anthropocene hypothesis on whether human activities and has a global impact on the Earth’s atmosphere and geological processes, and whether the Antarctic ice are increasing or decreasing, there is no doubt that we as humans have forever changed the planet Earth and its ecosystem.
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